The economy is stuck because of the awkwardness of capital flows.
(tonvanshellbuttons.com.vn) - While business needs, both deadlock input and output, the "knot" of bad debt that banks raise capital flows to transfer debt or invest in sector such credit bonds.
In reports Economic Situation Vietnam in August 4/2013 by the Financial Supervisory Commission (National UBGS) released today (2/5), the agency said, over the first 4 months was 16,600 corporate dissolution, decommissioning, up 16.9% over the same period in 2012.
The reason is explained by access to bank credit restrictions, combined with the difficulty of input costs, output, slow consumption, high inventory ... From that caused the negative makes enterprise resource depletion.
"We can say, the weakening of the business at this stage will not only increase the pressure on the state budget revenue in 2013, but also can cause certain effects to recovery economic growth the next year "- UBGS concerns.
Meanwhile, the overall economy is still weak level of assessment. Even for import and export activities, the deficit of about $ 1 billion in April and showed no clear expression of an increase in aggregate demand and production in the near future but purely technical sense Art by exports plummeted more than imports, the Commission recognizes.
The agency also noted that the export and import operations in April that is, exports of the sector in the country has decreased by 20% compared with March.
Mobilizing capital flows going in circles?
Leading figures from the State Bank, said UBGS, nearly three weeks after the first of April, credit growth system is about 1.14% compared to the end of 2012. Meanwhile, as of 4/26/2012, 4 credit growth fell by 0.85% compared to the end of 2011.
Thus, if compared with the same period last year, the situation in credit growth was better. Song, by UBGS, this figure is still significantly lower than the capital needs of the economy.
According to Commission calculations, I/2013 quarter alone, to ensure total investment reached forth, credit growth in the first quarter to reach at least 1.5% increase compared to 2012 ( equivalent to an increase of around 50,000 billion). However, as of mid-May 4/2013, credit growth and the new system is only about 1.44% YTD.
There are two reasons why low credit increase, according to the interpretation of UBGS the interest rate is higher than the ability of businesses to absorb capital and high NPL ratio makes credit harder still strong despite reaching mobilization increased significantly.
The current interest rates from 9-12% popular / year to encourage areas, for other areas popular from 11-15% / year. This interest rate is not sufficiently attractive business investment loans.
Meanwhile, high-rate loans that many banks continued to increase, but mainly mobilized to repay amounts due mobilized old. The difficulty in finding out the credit, deposits are mainly focused on non-financial investment credit as government bonds despite low yields.
Based on the above analysis, UBGS said that the pace of recovery in the near future will depend largely on the process of economic restructuring associated with NPLs. In other words, aggregate demand and economic growth will be faster and stronger recovery than the process of restructuring the economy and deal with the bad debt rate of disbursement of investment capital from the state budget to be accelerated on fact.
According to Dân Trí