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Macroeconomic balance is still a difficult problem

Tuesday, 12/03/2013, 13:38 GMT+7

Vietnam and many countries are in the stage of trying to maintain the equilibrium of a multipolar world than in the emerging forces and the forces of aging but still occupies a leading position; want a more balanced world between old and young, by the structure of the population changes, while still struggling with risk and uncertainty.

Assessment 2012 and early 2013, policy, three right. One is, never we persist with such economic stability. Secondly, we got out to change the way development.

Third, never the State Party and the determination with integration as now. Not only economic integration, this will be a comprehensive integration, continued negotiations with the strongest partners, with the liberalization of the highest quality.

That not everything is in progress. Macroeconomic instability risk is still very high, the total payment up to 24% but the money supply as credit growth is very low. If we support enterprises (companies) too far, restructuring the financial and banking system not clever, uncertainty will come back, lose faith.

But if not strong enough as Resolution 13, to this impact assessment is extremely weak. On the other hand, the budget is extremely difficult in the context of cost pressure is very high, even though Congress has agreed to release 45 billion and accepted for provincial bonds.

The biggest risks the banking system this year, bad debt is not how much treatment and continued to increase, related to the major banks, not just a few small banks such as Credit, Full Bridge. ..

Looking deeper, recession shock still, that stimulus conflict. Government in this direction faster, more aggressive Resolution 01, 02, paid more attention not only supply but also the demand side, even for the real estate market. However, the macro-economic balance is a difficult problem because we still do not know the reaction of the market how.

So again not as a matter of policy coordination. First six months of 2012, we block both fiscal, monetary currency block led to serious negative, fiscal "celebrate" long not come apart. Six months of the year to be 5%, largely due to public investment, banks have little growth but also businesses still very difficult.

January / 2013, for the first time in the history of Vietnam, the number of companies dissolved the higher number of newly established enterprises, credit remained negative growth of 1.1%, increased inventory ...

The draft constitution is a step forward, not state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is the core and the relative equality with other economic sectors. However, through the restructuring of SOEs still for it is the key tool of the country's economy. Once there are no fundamental change is not expected to change overall.

How to do business in 2013 nothing new, still in 2012 but way trying to regain confidence, try to do so, try to stabilize, trying to recover, go to restructuring.

Along with the settlement of bad debts, and hopefully this year some "firecrackers results" pretty is to restructure SOEs so that people can see we really started to do, an important factor associated with responsible to macro-economic stability.

With non-state enterprises, the perspective of reform in the context of the changing world of powerful, there are four important things to learn.

First, learn to live with the shock. Reducing shock, companies must reduce the uncertainty in determination.

Second, learn how to compete. But the world is changing the way of competition, therefore, have to learn to connect.

Third, financial education. Not only is the balance sheets, cash flow, but also to understand the financial world, the world is now very sophisticated financiers. Before said bonds, stocks, credit, now that the game of raising capital, monitoring funding was completely different.

Fourth, new ideas develop. Previously, the idea of ​​development is only talking about sustainable development issues, social issues. But today, it is the survival of the company, ie, to the greener and higher social responsibility. It is the survival of the enterprise products. That's four most important education reform for businesses.


Written : DNSG